Sentencing Commission projects 20.6% prison population rise by 2035; commission urges policy options alongside construction planning

Scott Schultz, executive director of the Kansas Sentencing Commission, told the Joint Committee on State Building Construction the commission’s 10‑year forecast projects a 20.6% increase in the incarcerated population by fiscal year 2035, a rise that would require roughly 2,530 additional beds systemwide and leave a residual need of about 1,365 beds beyond existing capacity when certain capacities are subtracted.

Schultz said the commission’s models are drawn from KDOC and other criminal justice data and that the projection indicates the state is expected to exceed male capacity around fiscal year 2029. "If we need to ring the bell, raise the red flag, this is obviously the time," Schultz told the committee.

Policy implications: Schultz urged lawmakers to consider sentencing and other policy levers in parallel with capital planning. He noted that some pending bills this session would increase the prison population and called for those policy decisions not to be considered in isolation. "At almost $43,000 a bed," Schultz said by way of comparison, "you can provide community programming for several people for that amount," underlining potential cost tradeoffs between construction and non‑custodial alternatives.

Data requests and follow up: Committee members asked for impact estimates for specific bills (for example, second‑look sentencing proposals) and for related gender‑specific data; Schultz said the commission can provide those numbers and that prior interim work had estimated several‑hundred‑bed impacts for some draft language.

Takeaway: The commission presented projections that, even with an added 400 beds at Hutchinson, the state will still need more capacity under current laws and trends unless policies or practices change. Schultz recommended the committee weigh community corrections, sentencing reform and rehabilitative programming alongside any decision to add bed space.