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JFO projects multi-year property-tax pressures; one-time buydowns can shift but not eliminate future increases
Summary
Julia Richter of the Joint Fiscal Office showed scenarios in which Education Fund uses growing faster than nonproperty revenues would require property-tax increases of roughly 13% (FY27), 7% (FY28) and 4% (FY29) absent buydowns; using $105 million in one-time general fund money smooths or delays increases but creates larger follow-on pressure without additional one-time revenue.
The Ways & Means Committee heard a multi-year analysis of Education Fund growth and scenarios for using one-time general fund money to reduce property-tax bills.
Julia Richter of the Joint Fiscal Office presented charts and a set of assumptions to show how Education Fund appropriations have grown and how different uses of $105 million in one-time general fund money would affect aggregate property-tax collections. Richter emphasized the analysis is illustrative and relies on specific assumptions: a 5% annual growth in Education Fund uses (based on a 10-year trend), the consensus nonproperty revenue forecast, and no future one-time general-fund transfers, reversions into the Education Fund, or…
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