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Poll shows narrow path for Newport‑Mesa bond; consultant recommends 2026 to reduce risk
Summary
A True North Research poll found a tentative 57% final ballot test for a proposed district bond—just above the 55% Prop 39 threshold—prompting the consultant to warn of steep risks and recommend delaying until 2026 to allow more outreach and refine the measure.
A consultant presentation and board discussion on June 25 left trustees weighing whether to place a general obligation bond on the November ballot or aim for 2026.
Dr. Tim McLarney of True North Research told the Newport‑Mesa Unified School District board his firm surveyed 535 likely November voters (margin of error ±4.2%) and ran a sequence of tests on a 75‑word ballot statement, tax rates and project descriptions. “At the final ballot test, we had 57% support for this proposal, 38% opposed, and about 6% unsure,” McLarney said, noting that the threshold for a Prop 39 school bond is 55%.
McLarney called the results “a yes, but” — support exists but is fragile. He said initial…
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