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Commission hears plan for Nantucket travel‑demand model, base model due in June
Summary
Consultant TrafInfo described a travel‑demand forecasting model being adapted from the statewide CTPS model to reflect Nantucket's ferry service and seasonality; staff said the base model will be ready by June and will aid project evaluation and mode‑shift planning.
The Nantucket Planning & Economic Development Commission heard Feb. 17 from TrafInfo consultant Sudhir Murphy about a travel‑demand forecasting model customized for the island. The model derives from the statewide CTPS (Central Transportation Planning Staff) tool and will be refined to reflect island‑specific features including ferry service, airport special generators, seasonality (summer peak vs. off‑peak) and local traffic analysis zones.
Murphy said the work leverages a well‑developed statewide model and will create intermediate target years (not just 2019 and 2050) so staff can assess short‑ and medium‑term scenarios. The model simulates households and travel choices (drive alone, transit, walk, bike, TNCs) and can be used to estimate intersection volumes, vehicle miles traveled, air‑quality and greenhouse gas impacts, and to test strategies that encourage mode shift.
Mike Mizzarelli said the base model is expected by June; staff recommended a joint meeting with the Select Board to develop scenarios the town would like the model to test, such as different growth rates or mode‑shift goals.
The model was funded by a town‑meeting appropriation in 2019; some future model support and scenario work may be contracted as an ongoing service.
