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Climatologist and state geologist outline dry 15‑month stretch, low reservoirs and options for management
Summary
State climatologist Dave Robinson and state geologist Steve Domber told a DEP public hearing that New Jersey has experienced persistent deficits — 13 of the last 15 months below normal and roughly 15.54 inches below normal precipitation over 15 months — and that reservoirs across multiple regions are well below long-term averages, prompting consideration of a drought warning.
At a Dec. 2025 New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection public hearing, state climatologist Dave Robinson and state geologist Steve Domber presented the data underpinning the department's consideration of a drought warning.
Robinson summarized precipitation and temperature trends, saying 13 of the last 15 months had below-normal precipitation and that the state is about 15.54 inches below normal over the past 15 months. He noted that warmer-than-average months have increased evaporation and stressed water-supply systems. Robinson also presented regional maps showing drier conditions concentrated in northern and western areas and a relatively wetter coastal strip in the recent period.
Domber described the agency's water-supply monitoring approach: weekly updates focusing specifically on water-supply drought (precipitation, streamflow, reservoir storage, groundwater) and the use of long-term averages and reservoir-combined metrics. He showed reservoir-storage comparisons indicating 2025 storages are generally below last year and below long-term averages for several combined reservoir systems, and explained how the 'stoplight' indicator summarizes precipitation, groundwater, streamflow and reservoir status across six drought regions.
Domber said that since Oct. 1 the state has been in a drought watch and that continued deterioration could lead to a drought warning — an administrative order the commissioner could issue to enable temporary measures such as modified passing flows, interconnection tests, bulk transfers and permit diversion adjustments. He emphasized that a warning may be applied statewide or by region and could be escalated to a drought emergency (a governor-declared condition) if conditions worsen.
Robinson reviewed the National Weather Service seasonal outlooks showing only modest indications of recovery and said the outlook does not strongly favor a major precipitation rebound. He closed by noting the team contributes weekly recommendations to the U.S. Drought Monitor author and that the Monitor published an updated map the morning of the hearing.
The DEP did not make an immediate operational change at the hearing; instead, staff solicited public input to inform whether to issue a drought warning or take other steps.
