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Forecast council: modest economic gains and $175 million revenue uptick; tariffs remain key risk

Economic and Revenue Forecast Council · February 3, 2026
AI-Generated Content: All content on this page was generated by AI to highlight key points from the meeting. For complete details and context, we recommend watching the full video. so we can fix them.

Summary

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council heard a February economic forecast showing modest GDP and employment improvements and roughly $175 million in revenue collections above the November outlook; the director warned a pending Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could create near-term uncertainty.

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council received a February economic forecast on Feb. 3 that showed modest improvements in GDP and personal income alongside revenue collections about $175,000,000 higher than the council projected in November.

“For the record, Dave Wright, the executive director of the Economic Revenue Forecast Council,” Wright said as he opened the presentation, adding, “Overall, I think it's slightly good news.” He told members the higher revenue performance is already visible in current collections and will feed into the council’s revenue models ahead of the mid‑February update.

Wright listed the council’s headline point forecasts for 2026: U.S. GDP growth of about 2.1%, a U.S. unemployment rate near 4.7%, Washington employment growth around 0.4%, Seattle inflation roughly 2.9%, and personal income growth near 5%. He said taxable sales remain…

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