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Science panel hears contrasting integrated-modeling approaches that map Puget Sound's futures
Summary
Presenters for the Future Scenarios project and the Puget Sound Integrated Modeling Framework described how alternate growth trajectories and linked biophysical models produce different but complementary results; panelists pressed teams on housing affordability, equity impacts, and how to communicate model uncertainty to decision makers.
Puget Sound Partnership science panel members spent a large portion of their February meeting on two integrated-modeling efforts designed to explore how land-use choices and climate change might affect the region by 2080.
The Future Scenarios team (Ross Strategic and partners) presented four character-driven narratives 'Salmon Forward, Network Growth, Rural Stewardship and Hybrid' and the Envision-based land-use simulations that illustrate each story. "The main thing we produce is a set of four character-driven narratives that describe what the future might look like," Elizabeth said, explaining that the narratives are translated into landscape changes and add-on socioeconomic models to show likely outcomes for housing, agriculture, heat exposure and habitat.
Puget Sound Institute and Puget Sound Integrated…
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