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Caseload Forecast Council adopts February forecast; projects rises in higher education and long-term care
Summary
The Caseload Forecast Council unanimously adopted its February forecast, with staff reporting modest declines in some K–12 measures and notable increases in higher education enrollment, community-based/long-term care demand and a projected rise in violator caseloads tied to a Department of Corrections policy change.
The Caseload Forecast Council voted to adopt its February forecast after staff presented updated projections across K–12, higher education, corrections, public assistance, child welfare and medical assistance.
Eric Cornelia, executive director of Caseload Forecast Council staff, summarized the package as “17 that are negligible or unchanged, and then 7 that are up and 7 that are down,” and said two broad themes stood out: higher education trending up and increases in community-based services, long-term care and developmental disabilities.
Education: Paula Moore, who staffs the education portfolio, said common schools enrollment for February is about 0.1% lower than the November forecast and attributed the pattern to demographic shifts — “fewer kids enter kindergarten and first grade while we have larger cohorts graduating” — linked to lower birth rates. Moore said special education is expected to grow faster than general K–12, projecting roughly 3–3.5% growth over the biennium.…
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