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Forecast council directs staff on reversions, revenue floor, juvenile facility costs and Medicaid eligibility savings

Economic and Revenue Forecast Council · January 12, 2026
AI-Generated Content: All content on this page was generated by AI to highlight key points from the meeting. For complete details and context, we recommend watching the full video. so we can fix them.

Summary

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council gave staff guidance on methodology for the governor's 2026 supplemental budget outlook, settling on a compromise reversion assumption (1% in FY26, 0.9% thereafter), excluding a statutory 4.5% revenue-growth floor, and including the governor’s proposed juvenile facility operating costs and functional‑eligibility savings in the outlook.

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council on Jan. (meeting date) voted on a set of methodological choices staff will use to prepare an outlook for the governor’s 2026 supplemental operating budget, deciding on assumptions about unspent appropriations, a statutory revenue-growth floor, a proposed juvenile rehabilitation facility, and changes to Medicaid functional eligibility.

The council adopted a compromise reversion assumption instructing staff to use 1% of general‑fund appropriations in fiscal year 2026 and 0.9% in the out years for the outlook, after a series of failed motions and discussion about conservatism versus reflecting the governor’s proposal. Rachel Knudson, senior budget advisor at the Office of Financial Management, told the council that the governor’s 1% assumption reduces projected expenditures by about $1,496,000,000 over the outlook period and that the long‑term average reversion rate is roughly 1.1%.

"Actual reversion levels in recent years have been larger than typical," Knudson said, noting the…

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