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WSDA outlines economic modeling tool estimating up to $1 billion in losses under severe water‑short scenarios
Summary
The Washington State Department of Agriculture described a drought assessment tool that couples an agricultural production model with IMPLAN; early Columbia Basin estimates show over $1 billion in total economic losses and more than 10,000 jobs at a 50% water‑supply scenario. Phase 2 will calibrate inputs for Yakima Basin and produce reports on 2024 and 2025 drought impacts.
Jacqueline Hancock, a water resources scientist at the Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA), presented a drought assessment tool that combines a profit‑maximizing agricultural production model with an IMPLAN input‑output module to estimate direct, indirect and induced economic impacts of water‑supply scenarios.
Hancock described the tool’s first deployment (Columbia Basin project) and said the model compares supply scenarios (70% versus 50% water supply). In the first application the team estimated total economic losses (direct + indirect + induced) could exceed $1,000,000,000 under a 50% scenario and that over 10,000 jobs could be lost. She said raising supply toward a 70% target — a goal of the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan — would preserve roughly a third of the jobs lost in the 50% scenario.
Phase 2 activities include recalibrating agricultural input data, refining assumptions at the irrigation‑district level (particularly in Yakima), releasing a producer survey in the Yakima Basin to capture yield, quality and adaptation responses, and producing reports estimating 2024 and 2025 drought impacts. Hancock emphasized the model is agricultural‑sector focused and does not directly quantify impacts to other sectors (fisheries, recreation, cultural resources), though she said WSDA will produce qualitative companion narratives to describe broader consequences.
Members pressed about integration with fisheries and hydrology datasets. Hancock said the existing model lacks integrated fisheries metrics but the team is open to conversations with WDFW and Ecology to explore linkages, while the current contract and timeline prioritize agricultural calibration and Yakima Basin deliverables.
Why this matters: the tool translates water‑supply changes into dollars and jobs, helping policymakers and funders compare the economic benefits of investments such as water‑supply projects and conservation measures.
Next steps: WSDA will release the Yakima Basin survey and work with irrigation districts and Reclamation to refine water‑delivery inputs; PAG members and agencies were invited to consult on outreach to producers and possible cross‑sector coordination.
