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Santa Barbara staff present lower 2025 water demand baseline and seven-scenario demand envelope
Summary
City staff told the Water Commission the 2025 urban water management plan baseline projects lower potable demand than the 2020 baseline and introduced a seven-scenario demand envelope that ranges from a 15% decrease to a 31% increase relative to baseline by 2050. The UWMP is due July 1, 2025.
Jasmine Showers, the staff presenter, told the Santa Barbara City Water Commission that the draft 2025 urban water management plan (UWMP) baseline projects lower potable demand than the plan adopted in 2020 and that the city has developed a seven-scenario demand envelope to capture uncertainty through 2050.
“Baseline demands now include the effect of water conservation programs and more detailed water loss,” Showers said, explaining that the 2025 baseline draws on average water use from 2021 through 2024 rather than the pre-drought assumptions used in 2020. She said the 2020 projection assumed a rebound toward 90% of pre-drought use; observed use since 2021 has been lower, producing a smaller 2025 baseline.
Showers quantified the change: the 2020 potable-demand projection reached about 12,500 acre-feet per year by 2050, while the 2025 baseline projects closer to 10,000 acre-feet per year — a difference of roughly 3,000…
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