Redmond SD 2J hears boundary-review plan and 10-year enrollment forecast

A consultant working with Redmond School District 2J told the school board the district's boundary review will rely on enrollment forecasting, community engagement and clear guiding principles to produce boundary scenarios for board consideration in April or May.

"We wanna make sure that it's data driven, that we use forecasting factors to really understand not only the trends within your district historically, but also in the near future and in the 10 year," McKay Larrabee, project manager with MGT, said during a presentation to the board. Larrabee outlined three forecasting inputs — birth factors (for kindergarten cohorts), mobility or grade-progression ratios, and student-yield factors applied to planned residential development — that together generate the district's student forecast.

Why it matters: Enrollment forecasts will drive recommendations about attendance-area lines, building capacity and phasing for bond-funded projects. Larrabee said the district is seeing stronger growth in kindergarten through fifth grade and lighter growth in middle grades, a pattern that will affect capacity planning as those cohorts progress.

The process: Larrabee described an iterative timeline that began in October with data gathering and housing-development research, continues with forecasting and capacity/utilization analysis, and moves into community forums and steering-committee work in February and March. The district will then refine maps and present a final recommendation to the board in April or May. He also listed example guiding principles — minimizing transportation impacts, balancing utilization, preserving neighborhood schools and balancing demographics — and cautioned they often push and pull against one another.

Board members pressed on outreach and the role of choice programs. Several board members asked how community input will be weighed against hard data and how existing choice programs (including dual-language immersion and high-school choice options) factor into resident-based boundary scenarios. Larrabee said the team will measure awareness early, present near-final scenarios to the board before community forums, and include content experts such as transportation, DEI and principals in a steering committee.

Public input and next steps: Larrabee said the team has an online survey intended to capture community values and that the steering committee will help translate those values into guiding principles. He said the survey will be compiled and used to shape the scenarios the district takes into public sessions. The board will receive updates at work sessions as scenarios reach an 80-90% level of development before broader outreach.

What to watch for next: The district will publish scenario maps and capacity analyses as the process moves into February and March community forums. The board is scheduled to consider a final boundary recommendation in April or May.