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State demographer forecasts continued Douglas County growth, urging water planners to account for migration-driven demand
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Summary
The Colorado State Demography Office told the Douglas County Water Commission that population growth—driven chiefly by net migration—will continue, with the 2024 vintage forecast estimating county population rising from about 394,000 to roughly 583,000 by 2060; commissioners pressed for scenario ranges and local applicability for water planning.
Nancy Gideon of the Colorado State Demography Office told the Douglas County Water Commission on Feb. 23 that the office’s 2024 vintage forecast projects substantial long-term growth for the county and emphasized net migration as the dominant driver of population change.
“All projections are wrong,” Gideon said, summarizing the limits of forecasting while explaining the office’s methodology, which begins with an economic forecast then layers births, deaths and migration. She gave the commission a 2024 baseline estimate of about 394,000 residents and said the office’s current forecast shows roughly 583,000 residents by 2060.
The presentation stressed demographic shifts that matter for planning: declining fertility, an aging population and variable migration. Gideon said Colorado’s statewide growth is expected to slow relative to past decades but still outpace national averages; for Douglas County she described a somewhat higher long-term annual rate, projected at about 0.5% by 2060.
Commissioners pressed for alternative scenarios. James Eklund and others asked whether the demographer could publish low-, medium- and high-range forecasts to help the commission test water-demand scenarios. Gideon said the office typically publishes a single official estimate but confirmed staff and the forecast demographer have produced scenario analyses and that the office can discuss local adjustments.
Chair and staff confirmed Gideon’s presentation materials will be posted: Gideon said she already sent a PDF to staff for publication. Commissioners said they would use the SDO numbers to compare against provider-supplied projections in the county water plan and requested clearer scenario runs to support alternative conservation or growth assumptions.
What happens next: Commissioners plan to use the SDO baseline while asking the consultant and demographer to provide or discuss scenario ranges so the county’s water-plan modeling can show how conservation adoption or changes in migration patterns would affect supply needs.
