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Actuarial update: CT Paid Leave reports a $639.1M ending balance for July–Sept quarter; FY26 projection revised down
Summary
Actuarial consultant Harindra Sebastian told the board the Authority restated its beginning balance and reported an ending fund balance of about $639.1 million for the July–Sept quarter; staff cut the FY26 net-activity projection and now forecast an ending balance near $648.6 million due to refunds and higher incurred claims.
The Connecticut Paid Leave Authority's actuarial consultant presented the July–September quarterly update on Dec. 11, reporting a restatement of the beginning fund balance and a modest downward revision to the fiscal‑year projection.
Harindra Sebastian, presenting on behalf of Spring, said the Authority restated the beginning fund balance to $638.9 million to account for a corrected reserve related to outstanding contributions. For the quarter, staff reported contributions earned of about $111.4 million, investment income of about $6.7 million and incurred claims of about $122.2 million. Those and other items produced a reported ending fund balance of roughly $639.1 million (all figures presented on an incurred basis, net of reserves and outstanding contributions).
"The beginning of your fund balance is restated to 638,900,000.0 instead of 641 [million]," Harindra said, and later noted the ending fund balance at about $639.1 million.
Harindra and staff said the quarter's net activity (approximately $200,000) was lower than the prior projection (about $8 million), driven in part by the private‑plan refunds that staff described earlier and by higher incurred claims. Staff revised the fiscal‑year 2026 projection: prior estimates that produced an ending balance of about $660 million were reduced, and the current projection shows an expected ending balance near $648.6 million based on updated contributions and claims assumptions.
The presenter also noted data‑quality caveats for related employer‑layoff (WARN Act) data the finance and audit committee reviewed; some reported layoff information may not be Connecticut‑specific and requires further validation.
Why it matters: The fund position remains within the Authority's funding metrics for solvency, Harindra said, but staff will continue to dig into contribution trends and claims experience to determine whether lower-than-expected contributions represent a short‑term fluctuation or a longer‑term trend.
Staff took no board action on the projection at the meeting; members were invited to ask follow‑up questions and will receive updated forecasts in future quarterly reports.
Ending: Staff will continue analyses of contribution drivers and claims experience and will update the board with revised forecasts in coming quarters.
