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OEA: Recession odds fall to 20% as Oregon’s revenue picture brightens but filing‑season risk remains
Summary
The Office of Economic Analysis reported a stronger-than-expected outlook—recession odds fell to 20% and the biennial ending balance moved from a projected deficit to a $198 million surplus—while warning that April tax filings could materially change the forecast.
The Office of Economic Analysis told the Senate Committee on Finance and Revenue on the revenue‑forecast briefing that national and state indicators have improved enough to reduce recession risk to about 20 percent and to boost near‑term state revenues.
State Chief Economist Carl Riccadana said four factors are lifting activity: federal tax stimulus from HR 1, recent Federal Reserve rate cuts, greater clarity on tariffs and a surge of investment tied to data centers and high‑tech industries. "We have economic growth that seems to be firming," Riccadana told the committee, adding the national forecast and private consensus are tracking a healthier picture than earlier in 2025.
Why it matters: Michael Kennedy of…
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