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State revenue office reports modest YTD growth; $160.3M above forecast
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Summary
Carlos Silva of the Bureau of Research told the ALC that gross general revenue collections were $4.78 billion year to date, about $80 million (1.7%) above last fiscal year, with net general revenue available of $4.1 billion (a $111 million, 2.8% increase). The office noted a $160.3 million cumulative deviation above the May 2025 forecast and said the agency will present an updated forecast next month.
Carlos Silva, a staff member in the Bureau of Research, told the Arkansas Legislative Council on the committee's February agenda that the state’s gross general revenue collections stood at $4.78 billion year to date.
Silva said that figure is roughly $80 million, or 1.7 percent, higher than the same point in the previous fiscal year. He identified net general revenue available for distribution at $4.1 billion, an increase of about $111 million, or 2.8 percent, compared with January 2025.
"As of January, we have a $160,300,000 on the original forecast," Silva said, noting a cumulative deviation above the Fiscal and Administrative (F&A) forecast from May 2025. He told members the agency produced an updated forecast on Jan. 30 that will be reflected when the next monthly report is presented.
Silva highlighted a technical timing issue in gaming revenue accounting: once gross receipts for casino gaming hit $31,200,000, those receipts are placed into a subaccount and transferred to the highway transportation fund at fiscal year end. "So that's why we see this increase here," he said, adding the change is a timing effect rather than a sudden long‑term spike in gaming receipts.
Silva also pointed to several other drivers of the variance, including stronger‑than‑expected sales and individual income tax collections and a one‑time collection tied to an individual lottery winner that shifted receipts between fiscal years.
Chair closed the item after asking for questions; none were offered and the committee took no further action on the report.
The committee will receive the agency’s reset forecast next month, which Silva said will reflect the updated January agency forecast.
