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Demographic study: Combs sees housing growth but stagnant service rate as school choice chips away at enrollment
Summary
Applied Economics presenter said J O Combs Unified’s resident school‑age population has grown but the share attending district schools fell from about 56% in 2010 to ~28–29% in 2025, driven mainly by charter expansion, ESA‑era homeschooling/pods and other choice options; administration and demographers warned recovery could take a decade.
Mister Brammert of Applied Economics presented the district’s updated demographic study, telling the board the district has added housing and population but not regained the share of school‑age children attending district schools.
“The current downward slide is actually a departure,” Brammert said, noting the recent enrollment fall is “not supported by a decrease in housing activity.” He said growth in charter schools, Education Savings Accounts (ESAs), homeschooling and pods created new choices that have divided an essentially flat school‑age population since about 2010.
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