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Demographic study: Combs sees housing growth but stagnant service rate as school choice chips away at enrollment
Summary
Applied Economics presenter said J O Combs Unified’s resident school‑age population has grown but the share attending district schools fell from about 56% in 2010 to ~28–29% in 2025, driven mainly by charter expansion, ESA‑era homeschooling/pods and other choice options; administration and demographers warned recovery could take a decade.
Mister Brammert of Applied Economics presented the district’s updated demographic study, telling the board the district has added housing and population but not regained the share of school‑age children attending district schools.
“The current downward slide is actually a departure,” Brammert said, noting the recent enrollment fall is “not supported by a decrease in housing activity.” He said growth in charter schools, Education Savings Accounts (ESAs), homeschooling and pods created new choices that have divided an essentially flat school‑age population since about 2010.
Brammert explained the study uses two modeling approaches — a districtwide top‑down model and a finer subdistrict analysis that divides the district into about 60 planning grids. The subdistrict work, he said, reveals that new developments along Combs Road and other pockets have added students in some neighborhoods while losses in other parts of the district offset those gains.
The study found the district’s resident school‑age population (ages 5–17) is roughly 12,500 while district enrollment is just under 3,600, producing a service rate of roughly 28–29% compared with about 56% in 2010. Brammert cautioned that statewide birth rates fell sharply over the last 15 years — from roughly 102,000 births in 2006 to about 78,000 in recent years — and said that change means the pipeline of new students has flattened and may take a decade to rebalance.
Don Graves, a residential development expert working with Applied Economics, told the board the pipeline of new housing remains substantial: roughly 7,500 non‑age‑restricted units built in the past decade, about 700 multifamily units in recent years, and additional potential on state land. He warned water and infrastructure issues will stagger construction and that the district should expect several years of construction followed by a slowdown.
Board members asked for specifics about multifamily locations and possible enrollment‑capture strategies. Brammert and staff said the district will use the subdistrict maps to target outreach but reiterated that attraction of new students depends as much on program choice as on new housing.
The board received the presentation for discussion and directed staff to continue incorporating the report into budget and program planning.
