RCTC approves midyear revenue projections; TUMF forecast cut to $22 million

The Riverside County Transportation Commission on Feb. 11 approved midyear revenue projections for Measure A, the Local Transportation Fund (LTF) and the Transportation Uniform Mitigation Fee (TUMF), and authorized a $405,000 midyear amendment for the regional conservation department. The commission voted 29–0 to adopt the combined recommendations presented by Jennifer Fuller, deputy director of finance.

Fuller said the commission’s consultants and staff analyzed current receipts, historical trends and economic indicators to develop the projections. She told commissioners Measure A is expected to remain near $280,000,000 and LTF near $150,000,000 for the current fiscal year, reflecting stabilization after five years of growth. "Measure A and LTF revenues are showing stable performance," Fuller said.

TUMF collections differed. Fuller reported that recent collections have trended lower: while TUMF averaged roughly $30 million in recent years and peaked near $40 million, only $7,400,000 had been collected through November 2025—about 25% of the budgeted amount for that period. After coordinating with WRCOG, staff recommended lowering the current‑year TUMF projection from $30,000,000 to $22,000,000 and using the same projection for fiscal year 2026–27.

Commissioners pressed staff on whether the decline reflects a change in the fee level or a drop in development. Fuller and staff said WRCOG had raised its nexus fee last fiscal year (which briefly spiked collections), but the more sustained decline appears linked to a slowdown in development activity; staff cited updated WRCOG projections as the basis for the revision.

The midyear expenditure adjustment includes a $405,000 amendment for professional services in the regional conservation department. Fuller said the adjustment will be funded with RCA reimbursement to RCTC. Staff indicated they will continue to monitor receipts, including a large holiday sales tax payment expected later in February or March that could affect final projections, and will return with refinements during the May–June budget cycle.

Votes at a glance: the consent calendar (items 6a–j) passed earlier in the meeting (reported 26–0). The combined midyear and FY26–27 revenue projections plus the $405,000 midyear adjustment passed 29–0.

What happens next: staff will track actual receipts, publish updates if material changes arise, and bring recommended budget language and any further adjustments to the commission in the May–June budget process.