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Lebanon schools' five-year forecast shows ongoing deficits but delays need for new funding to fiscal 2028

Lebanon Board of Education · November 19, 2024
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Summary

District financial staff presented a November five-year forecast showing continued deficit spending but an extended timeline that pushes the need for new money from fiscal 2027 to fiscal 2028, driven by one-time pipeline receipts, higher property-tax collections from delinquency catch-up, and lower-than-projected insurance increases.

District finance staff presented an updated five-year forecast at the Lebanon Board of Education meeting on Nov. 18, showing the district remains in a pattern of deficit spending but has pushed the projected need for new revenue from fiscal 2027 to fiscal 2028.

Finance staff said a combination of factors produced the shift: receipt of pipeline funds earlier than expected, higher property-tax collections this year largely due to delinquencies being paid, and insurance-cost increases coming in lower than the 10% originally budgeted (staff used a 4% figure for the forecast). Those early receipts and smaller-than-expected insurance growth improved near-term balances and pushed the district’s projected cash position out by a fiscal year.

"We are still deficit spending. We are still spending more money than we anticipate receiving," staff said, noting that the district now projects reaching the previously forecast cash point one year later than in May. Staff also cautioned that long-range forecasts are sensitive to legislative changes to state funding formulas, property-tax valuation shifts, and an upcoming union negotiation that will set salary increases for multiple years.

Board members pressed staff on enrollment trends and whether increasing local housing would raise future enrollment. Staff said kindergarten and first-grade enrollments are currently lower than usual even as new housing is built and that enrollment remains monitored closely.

The district reported a current cash-balance measure of about 115 days versus a target of roughly 120 days and discussed drafting a formal cash-balance policy (options discussed: 90 or 120 days) to guide board action if balances fall below the chosen threshold.

Next steps: staff will continue to monitor revenues and expenses, produce updates to the CAT (Capital/Activity/Trend) committee, and return to the board with a proposed cash-balance policy and any forecast revisions as more information (union negotiations, state actions) becomes available.