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RiverCOG board endorses regional housing needs assessment methodology
Summary
RiverCOG endorsed a draft regional housing needs assessment methodology that models a 10-year need of about 2,222 units and allocates growth by population (50%), jobs (40%) and transit (10%), while stressing the tool is advisory, not a mandate.
RiverCOG on Thursday voted to endorse a draft regional housing needs assessment (RHNA) methodology developed by the Regional Housing Committee and staff.
Megan Giuffless, who presented the methodology, said the approach uses four census-derived inputs — population, household size, existing housing units and vacancy rate — and tests a 1% population growth scenario. "When we plugged that in," Giuffless said, "we ended up with 2,222 units over 10 years," a result she noted aligns closely with an earlier market absorption estimate of about 2,000 units.
The methodology proposes allocating the regionwide need across municipalities using three weighted factors: 50% existing share of population, 40% jobs (from LEHD/LODES data) and 10% transit access (half-mile walk sheds around stations). An equity adjustment would refine the distribution by area median income categories using CHAS/HUD data; the adjustment changes the composition of units by income band but not the total unit count.
Giuffless and other board members emphasized that the RHNA is a planning tool intended to guide municipal plans and zoning discussions, not a regulatory mandate. "This is a planning tool," she said. "It's not any sort of requirement for anyone to build units. It's not any sort of a mandate on towns." Board members asked that the model be rerun with the most recent data during the 2025 plan update cycle.
Board members moved to "endorse the use of the regional housing needs assessment methodology for use in the update of the regional housing plan and to inform future conversations about housing." The motion was seconded and carried without opposition.
Next steps include applying updated census and other data, preparing municipal allocation tables for the regional housing plan update (plans due in 2027), and developing toolkit materials — for example, sample zoning language and public engagement templates — to help towns accommodate the allocations.
