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Five‑year forecast shows multi‑million‑dollar shortfalls as board readies financial recovery plan
Summary
The Cuyahoga Falls City School DistrictTreasurer told the board its five‑year forecast projects deficits beginning in FY27 driven by stagnant revenue, enrollment declines and sharply rising benefit costs; the board was advised to prepare a financial recovery plan for submission to the state.
The Cuyahoga Falls City School DistrictTreasurer presented a five‑year financial forecast Wednesday that projects a revenue shortfall beginning in fiscal year 2027 and a cumulative deficit by the fifth year.
The treasurer recommended the board "approve and accept the 5 year forecast as presented," saying the model shows the district could be "about 19,000,000 in the red" by year five and noting the numbers are driven by a set of assumptions and attached explanatory notes.
Why it matters: the district relies on local levies and state funding that the treasurer said together make up more than 92% of revenues. With enrollment down by roughly 1,000 students over seven years and state funding formulas shifting, the board faces growing pressure to reduce expenditures or identify new revenue sources to avoid a structural deficit.
What the treasurer said: the presentation outlined revenue drivers, levy timing and key risks. The treasurer said a "revenue increase of 13% is needed" to avoid deficits and flagged two levies the district relies on: a recently renewed 7.9‑mill operating levy and a 9.97‑mill levy that was approved decades earlier and will expire at the end of calendar year 2026 unless renewed. The treasurer also attributed a significant part of the forecast deterioration to rising employee benefit costs and insurance premiums, noting an 18.14% premium increase this year and projecting elevated premium growth in the near term.
Key drivers and constraints: the forecast attributes most district spending to personnel (about 76% of expenditures) and identified purchase services and special‑education out‑of‑district tuition as large, often uncontrollable, cost categories. The treasurer said debt service and the lack of a district‑wide permanent improvement levy further constrain options for capital spending; a permanent improvement fund required by OFCC is limited to the new 6–12 building and cannot be used districtwide.
Board response and next steps: board members asked for additional detail about the FY27 revenue jump and requested a continuing, rolling discussion about district finances; one member asked the administration to present a more detailed analysis of what a $7 million cut would look like and why such reductions are not feasible without material impacts. The treasurer said the district has prepared a draft financial recovery plan and hopes to adopt it on Nov. 20, subject to the states timing for accepting the submission.
Formal action: the board heard a motion to accept the forecast and moved the treasurer's recommendation forward during the meeting. The district will proceed with additional finance discussions and with preparing the financial recovery plan for state submission.
What to watch: whether the board adopts the recovery plan at its next meeting and any decisions on levy renewals or targeted expenditure reductions that would materially change the forecast.
