Lifetime Citizen Portal Access — AI Briefings, Alerts & Unlimited Follows
FERC staff warns of higher summer demand, regional reliability strains; consent agenda approved
Loading...
Summary
FERC staff presented the 2025 Summer Energy Market and Electric Reliability Assessment, warning of higher summer demand, elevated prices, and regional shortfalls under extreme conditions; commissioners approved the consent agenda and pressed staff on PJM risks and interconnection reforms.
FERC held its May 2025 open meeting to consider a slate of orders and to hear staff's 2025 Summer Energy Market and Electric Reliability Assessment, which warned of higher-than-normal demand and region‑specific risks that could strain the grid during stressed summer conditions.
Staff framed the summer outlook as more challenging than recent years. "This presentation reflects Commission staff's outlook for energy markets and electric reliability for June through September 2025," Alexander Ovidenko, who introduced the assessment, told Commissioners. Staff said wholesale prices are expected to be higher across most regions and that overall summer load will exceed the average of the last four summers.
Why it matters: Higher demand, rising natural‑gas prices and a changing resource mix can combine to increase the risk of supply shortfalls during heat waves, wildfires or other stressors. Commissioners said the assessment underscores the urgency of speeding generator interconnections and improving regional transmission coordination.
Staff findings and key figures - Natural gas: "Total U.S. natural gas demand is forecasted by EIA to average 98,700,000,000 cubic feet per day or BCFD in summer 2025," staff reported. They noted this is about 1.7 BCFD more than summer 2024 and roughly 9.7% higher than the five‑year summer average. Higher gas prices contributed to a projected decline in gas‑fired power's share of generation this summer. - Prices: Staff said the Henry Hub futures price averaged $3.76 per MMBtu as of May 1 for the summer season, up from $2.24 last year. - Regional risks: Staff and North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) presenters identified several areas with elevated risk under extreme conditions, including New England (NPCC), portions of the Midcontinent ISO (MISO), ERCOT and the Southwest Power Pool (SPP). NERC reported an aggregated peak‑demand increase on the order of 10 gigawatts compared with prior aggregated assessments.
NERC recommendations and operational guidance Mark Olson of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation summarized NERC's assessment and urged industry steps to bolster readiness. "Load growth is expected to drive higher peak demand," he said, and recommended that grid operators review operating plans, apply lessons learned from prior extreme events, and implement inverter‑based resource performance recommendations issued in March 2023.
Commissioners press on PJM and resource mix Several Commissioners focused questioning on PJM after the regional operator issued a separate summer outlook noting potential reserve shortfalls. Commissioners said PJM should be treated as a region of particular concern given recent capacity losses and increasing load. They also raised the long‑term challenge of replacing dispatchable coal and gas units with inverter‑based resources that provide less flexibility in certain conditions.
Commission action and next steps The Commission approved its consent agenda (items E1–E10 and hydro item H1) by recorded votes during the meeting. Commissioners recorded votes as follows: Commissioner Chang — aye; Commissioner Singh — yes; Commissioner Rosner — aye; Chairman Christie — "aye on everything" in this roll call. The Secretary earlier noted the Commission had issued 58 notational orders since the April 17, 2025 open meeting.
FERC announced a technical conference on resource adequacy for early June to explore those and related issues. Staff said a longer version of the presentation and supporting materials will be posted on FERC's website (www.ferc.gov).
Votes at a glance: consent agenda Items: E1–E10 and hydro item H1 — Outcome: approved (recorded votes included Commissioners Chang, Singh, Rosner and Chair Christie voting in favor as recorded in the meeting). No mover/second recorded on the public transcript.
The meeting adjourned after closing remarks and reminders about the June technical conference. The full staff presentation and the longer report will be posted on FERC's website.
