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FERC technical conference: MISO’s net loss of accredited capacity sparks debate over accreditation, market fixes and state planning
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Summary
At a two‑day FERC technical conference, commissioners and experts debated whether MISO faces an imminent shortfall after roughly 9.5 GW net loss of accredited capacity over the past decade, and whether marginal accreditation and prompt seasonal markets can restore investment incentives while states coordinate planning for large new loads such as data centers.
WASHINGTON — Commissioners and stakeholders at a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission technical conference on Feb. 26 centered much of their discussion on whether market rules and planning in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint will produce enough generation and other resources to meet rapidly changing load patterns.
Chairman Mark Christie opened the session by citing MISO figures showing about 13 gigawatts of additions and roughly 22.5 gigawatts of retirements over the last decade — a net loss of about 9.5 gigawatts — and asked panelists what must be done to maintain reliability as large new loads, especially data centers, come online.
The panel offered sharply differing views but coalesced around a small set of possible solutions. Dr. David Patton, a long‑time market analyst, said the earlier market design (a “vertical” demand curve) discouraged merchant investment. “FERC has never had a just and reasonable standard for capacity markets,” he said, arguing that marginal accreditation and a prompt seasonal market would re‑align incentives so investors can forecast returns and financiers will underwrite new generation.
MISO executives and other panelists described a more mixed picture. Todd of MISO told commissioners the region has moved from surplus toward minimum reserves and is stabilizing after retirements slowed around 2022, but warned “there’s work to do” to keep up with possible load growth. Ameren and Entergy representatives stressed that regional outcomes differ: Missouri’s regulated environment is pursuing proactive replacements and expects roughly 5.3 GW of additions by the end of the decade, while parts of Illinois face greater uncertainty.
Several panelists pressed for queue reform and faster interconnection. “You’ve got projects in the queue that simply aren’t ready,” said one panelist, urging regulators and RTOs to accelerate studies or remove speculative entries so committed projects can proceed. A separate thread examined MISO’s contractual limit on transfers between its North and South regions; experts said that cap is a negotiated, not a physical, constraint that can only be expanded by deal‑making with neighboring systems and that it reduces the flexibility of sharing capacity across the footprint.
States and regulators said their planning frameworks will matter as much as changes at FERC. State commissioners at the conference described differing approaches — integrated resource planning in some vertically integrated states, targeted procurements and financial incentives in others — and stressed that the states must be able to use RTO information (seasonal accreditation and hours of concern) to adapt IRPs and procurement timelines.
Why it matters: Commissioners pressed that the goal is not only to set accurate accreditation values (the effective reliability contribution of a given resource) but to ensure those values feed predictable, durable price signals so investors will deliver new capacity in the places and times the grid actually needs it. Panelists repeatedly framed the challenge in three windows: near term (1–5 years), medium term (5–10 years) and long term (10+ years), arguing that success in the first two is critical.
What’s next: Panelists urged follow‑up actions including (1) finalizing marginal accreditation and prompt seasonal constructs already under development, (2) accelerating queue and interconnection reforms to weed out speculative projects, and (3) strengthening state–RTO coordination so IRPs and reliability analyses use the same operating‑hour definitions and assumptions. FERC opened a post‑conference comment window to collect additional suggestions and will consider targeted rule changes in existing dockets.
At this session there were no formal votes or commission orders; the conference served to gather technical input for pending and future rule makings. The conference record, including written statements and a webcast, will be available for post‑hearing filings.
