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Demographer warns St. Louis region may face sustained population decline; cites loss of Black families and low housing production
Summary
Dr. Ness Sandoval told the St. Louis City Budget & Public Employees Committee that the St. Louis metropolitan region has experienced natural decline since 2020 and that much of the city's recent population loss stems from Black families leaving; he urged local action on housing, schools and census data accuracy.
Dr. Ness Sandoval, a demographer at Saint Louis University, told the St. Louis City Budget & Public Employees Committee that new population estimates show the St. Louis metropolitan region has shifted into a period of natural decline — more deaths than births — beginning in 2020 and that continued out-migration is compounding that loss.
"We have to become younger. We need to get more families with children," Sandoval told alderpersons, warning that under one heuristic the region could lose roughly 12,000 residents a year if current trends persist. He said preliminary 2023 and 2022 data show COVID added an excess of deaths but that underlying age structure and fertility declines preceded the pandemic.
The presentation focused both on regional patterns and city-level details. Sandoval said the metro area’s recent growth has…
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