Demographic study: Rock Hill Schools told to expect about 10% enrollment decline over 10 years
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Summary
Consultants presenting a 10‑year demographic model said Rock Hill Schools could lose roughly 10% of enrollment over the next decade, largely driven by smaller household sizes and increasing nontraditional school attendance; trustees pressed for facility studies and feeder‑pattern fixes.
Consultants for Rock Hill Schools presented the first phase of a three‑part planning process on Feb. 24, telling trustees a demographic model projects the district could lose about 10% of its student population over the next 10 years.
Marty Little of the Catawba Regional Council of Governments explained the district’s projections rely on a modified cohort survival model driven primarily by residential building permits recorded between February 2022 and December 2025. Little said the model assumes current permit activity continues and injects local and state data — including household size and public‑school participation rates — into cohort survival projections. “Based on our analysis, the school district is anticipated to decrease by approximately 10% over the next 10 years,” the presenter said.
Consultants said the decline is attributable to two main factors: a falling average household size in the district (presented as roughly 2.34 persons per household) and a statewide trend of more students attending charter, private or home schools rather than traditional public schools. The presenters noted the model uses state data to account for shifts between traditional district enrollment and nontraditional schooling and that some attendance zones are exceptions: Richmond Drive Elementary and York Road Elementary were identified as two schools projected to avoid declines.
Trustees pressed for local detail. Questions included whether northern Rock Hill or Newport‑area development (York Road/Townsend) was captured, how the model treats large planned subdivisions or entitlements, and how the model controls for the unusually large charter school population in Rock Hill. Presenters said permit data vary by geography and that the model does not assume construction that is only approved as an entitlement; it counts permits applied for through December 2025. They also said the state’s enrollment split was used to approximate charter and homeschool impacts rather than a Rock Hill‑specific charter model.
Trustees said the findings require swift follow‑up: the board scheduled a facilities assessment for March 24 and asked staff to provide additional layers of data (immersion program counts, neighborhood‑level permit maps, detailed feeder patterns and program offerings such as orchestra availability). Several trustees warned that declining enrollment while maintaining the same building capacity will require difficult decisions about facility use.
Next steps: the district will bring a facilities assessment to the March 24 board meeting and convene a facilities master‑planning team per board policy FB to translate the demographic projections into recommended actions.