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Demographic study: Rock Hill Schools told to expect about 10% enrollment decline over 10 years
Summary
Consultants presenting a 10‑year demographic model said Rock Hill Schools could lose roughly 10% of enrollment over the next decade, largely driven by smaller household sizes and increasing nontraditional school attendance; trustees pressed for facility studies and feeder‑pattern fixes.
Consultants for Rock Hill Schools presented the first phase of a three‑part planning process on Feb. 24, telling trustees a demographic model projects the district could lose about 10% of its student population over the next 10 years.
Marty Little of the Catawba Regional Council of Governments explained the district’s projections rely on a modified cohort survival model driven primarily by residential building permits recorded between February 2022 and December 2025. Little said the model assumes current permit activity continues and injects local and state data — including household size and public‑school participation rates — into cohort survival projections.…
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