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Lea County staff presents conservative FY26 revenue forecast, warns of oil dependence
Summary
County staff told commissioners the general fund has grown rapidly but cited continued dependence on oil and gas, outlined conservative price assumptions (about $36/barrel oil, $2'$2.75/MCF gas) and proposed budgeting methods that aim to protect reserves while allowing modest spending increases.
Assistant County Manager Chip Lowe presented Lea County's preliminary FY2025'FY2026 general fund revenue outlook, stressing that recent years'rapid growth has moderated and that the county must budget conservatively because oil and gas remain the primary revenue drivers.
Lowe said general fund revenues rose from roughly $100 million in FY2021 to more than $290 million in FY2023, and that growth slowed in FY2024. "We saw astronomical growth," he told the commission, but added that national and state forecasts indicate production and prices could flatten. For budgeting, staff proposed using a…
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