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Work group hears baseline forecast showing Seattle dominates state capacity; consultants flag risks for small airports
Summary
Consultants from Steer told the Commercial Aviation Work Group that Seattle accounts for about 88% of Washington’s airline capacity, that fleet up‑gauging and airline consolidation have reduced service to smaller communities, and that an unconstrained 2026–2050 forecast and a later constraints analysis will guide regional recommendations.
Consultants contracted to the Commercial Aviation Work Group presented a baseline industry analysis on Feb. 26 that, they said, should inform regional planning for the next 25 years. "This is the forecast for 2026 based on schedules that have been filed by the airlines today," said Steve Van Beek of Steer, who led the presentation and said further unconstrained forecasts will be delivered in April and a constraints analysis in the third quarter.
The presentation emphasized four interlinked trends: consolidation among legacy carriers after deregulation, airlines up‑gauging fleets (reducing 50‑seat regional jets), much higher load factors, and an ongoing concentration of service in Seattle. Van Beek said Seattle has about 88% of…
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