Work group hears baseline forecast showing Seattle dominates state capacity; consultants flag risks for small airports
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Summary
Consultants from Steer told the Commercial Aviation Work Group that Seattle accounts for about 88% of Washington’s airline capacity, that fleet up‑gauging and airline consolidation have reduced service to smaller communities, and that an unconstrained 2026–2050 forecast and a later constraints analysis will guide regional recommendations.
Consultants contracted to the Commercial Aviation Work Group presented a baseline industry analysis on Feb. 26 that, they said, should inform regional planning for the next 25 years. "This is the forecast for 2026 based on schedules that have been filed by the airlines today," said Steve Van Beek of Steer, who led the presentation and said further unconstrained forecasts will be delivered in April and a constraints analysis in the third quarter.
The presentation emphasized four interlinked trends: consolidation among legacy carriers after deregulation, airlines up‑gauging fleets (reducing 50‑seat regional jets), much higher load factors, and an ongoing concentration of service in Seattle. Van Beek said Seattle has about 88% of the state’s airline seats in recent years, leaving Spokane and a small group of medium‑sized airports behind and smaller nonhub airports underperforming their national peers.
Why it matters: The dominance of a single hub changes what regional planning can and cannot accomplish. A constrained Seattle—because of runway, gate, or terminal limits—would either push capacity to other state airports or require different policies to manage access, Van Beek said. He described a three‑level congestion framework used internationally (level 1–3) and warned that level‑3 slot controls can lock up capacity and advantage carriers with historic precedence.
The consultants tied the aircraft‑size shift to practical outcomes for smaller communities: as airlines replace 50‑seat aircraft with larger types, some towns lose frequency or service entirely because they cannot support larger aircraft economically. Van Beek said this is already visible in parts of Washington and will be a recurring planning challenge for the group.
Steer also summarized funding and infrastructure tradeoffs. Federal Airport Improvement Program (AIP) grants and passenger facility charges (PFCs) still fund much airport capital, but PFCs have not been raised since 2000, and airports rely increasingly on aeronautical and non‑aeronautical revenues and debt to pay for expensive terminal and roadway work. The presentation highlighted that passenger experience constraints (long security queues, overloaded baggage systems, curb congestion) are often more difficult and less federally funded than airside improvements.
Committee members asked about how the forecast treats origin‑and‑destination travel versus connecting traffic, cargo, and the role of ultra‑low‑cost carriers; consultants said those topics will be examined in the April packet and subsequent literature review. The work group scheduled next steps and repeated that the April meeting would include an unconstrained 2050 forecast and data to inform regional tradeoffs.
The group then moved to the public comment period and later to the next agenda item on SCA’s master plan. The work group set its next meeting for July 8 and agreed to continue regional coordination in future sessions.