San Rafael staff: state housing laws shaped nearly all recent multifamily projects; commission urged to focus on long-range planning

Planning Manager Margaret Kavanaugh Lynch told the San Rafael Planning Commission on a staff study session that state housing laws — particularly the state density bonus and ministerial pathways — have driven most multifamily development proposals in San Rafael since 2021.

"We had 18 projects in the city of San Rafael since 2021," Lynch said. "All but 1 used the state path ' 17 of them used the state density bonus law." She warned that under the State Housing Accountability Act local governments face a high legal bar to deny or reduce density unless a project would cause a "significant quantifiable direct and unavoidable" health-and-safety impact that cannot be mitigated.

The staff presentation summarized the city's development pipeline (figures as of Jan. 17): about 101 units in preliminary review, 535 formally submitted, roughly 1,183 approved or entitled, 331 appealed (appeals denied), 368 under construction and 192 built, for a total pipeline of about 2,710 dwelling units. Lynch said the general plan (2040) and the 2023 housing element were designed to support this growth.

Commissioners spent much of the session probing the limits of local discretion. Lynch said many components of project review are now objective and that preliminary-review protections such as SB 330 allow applicants to lock in codes and fees. On the legal standard to deny or reduce density, Lynch said she would provide the statutory definition and legal guidance to commissioners: the bar is "very high," she said, and must be supported by objective design standards and evidence.

Several commissioners raised practical concerns: whether the city can slow the pace of approvals; the fiscal risk of losing litigation (one attendee cited an estimate that denying a project could cost the city approximately $10 million in fees and penalties); and the political friction when neighborhoods perceive a loss of local control. Lynch answered that the state would not likely allow a numerical cap on units, and that the city can instead manage outcomes through long-range planning, updated objective design standards, impact-fee studies and construction management plans.

Staff previewed near-term work that will come to the commission: updates to objective design standards and zoning definitions, a general-plan amendment tied to AB 2140 to align safety and hazard-mitigation language, edits to the accessory dwelling unit rules to reflect SB 9 changes, and two specific plans (Southeast San Rafael and East San Rafael) funded in part by federal grants. Lynch said the Northgate RFP was launched recently and drew a robust pre-bid meeting; she noted OBAG/MTC grant cycles have supported planning work.

Commissioners asked staff to compile comparative examples of ministerial incentive programs used elsewhere (staff cited Oakland, Sacramento and Petaluma) and to bring an annual progress/RHNA snapshot to the commission in March so members can see entitled versus built units over time.

Lynch and Deputy Director Greg Minor also acknowledged internal workload and cross-department coordination: public-works, fire, police, building and legal review all vet projects before they reach the commission, Lynch said, and staff is working to make the city's zoning and definitions more transparent to the public.

The commission did not take formal votes on policy changes during the session; Lynch closed by inviting commissioners to suggest additions to future staff reports and said draft code edits to streamline small residential and business projects will be circulated for commissioner review.