Carlisle Local board hears five-year forecast warning $3.7M loss if local 1% income tax is repealed

Carlisle Local School District's board heard a five-year financial forecast on Sept. 10 showing the district can break even this year but will begin deficit-spending in subsequent years unless it increases revenue or reduces expenses, and that a full repeal of the district's 1% income tax would remove about $3.7 million a year.

Dan (Treasurer) presented the forecast, explaining the model covers three prior years, the current fiscal year (FY2026) and four projection years. He told the board that the district's total valuation is about $285,000,000 and that certified collections assume 97% collection rates. "For last year, the income tax we collected under fiscal year '25 ... we collected $3,711,489 last school year," Dan said, and added the forecast projects a modest 3% annual increase in that line under the baseline assumptions.

Why it matters: board members and administrators said a loss of the local income tax would require difficult choices. Dan ran alternate scenarios showing that if the 1% income tax is repealed, the district would immediately lose roughly $3.7 million; under that scenario carryover would fall from about $10.4 million toward levels that could jeopardize operations within several years. He said a partial cut (for example, to 0.75%) would reduce the shock but still produce growing deficits.

State lawmakers and county officials who attended urged planning and community engagement. Sen. Steve Wilson told the board the Fair School Funding plan remains funded in the recent state budget and urged districts to plan for a changing revenue landscape. "Don't think you're gonna continue to rely on property taxes," Wilson said, urging diversification of local revenue sources.

Warren County Auditor Matt Nolan said replacing Carlisle's income tax with property taxes would mean a large levy: "To replace the income tax that they currently have in Carlisle would be 12.7 (mills) ... that's $450 basically per $100,000. The average house is $250,000. You're talking about an additional thousand dollars in your property taxes," Nolan said, arguing that income taxes provide revenue that scales with earnings in ways property taxes do not.

Board members and the superintendent discussed next steps: increasing transparency to staff and the community, preparing a public-information effort, and deciding who will lead any "vote no" campaign if a repeal measure qualifies for the ballot. The administration committed to publishing the forecast and bringing an approved version of the statutory forecast to the board meeting in September; Dan said that filing deadlines require the district to adopt a forecast by Oct. 15.

Public comment underscored stakes for families and staff. A longtime former employee told the board the district already operates "on bare bones." Resident Ken Standefer, who said he worked in tax preparation, said he plans to vote against repeal: "I want this school to survive," Standefer said, adding that he and his family moved to the district because of its schools.

The board did not take any formal budget action at the meeting beyond receiving the forecast. The session ended after a motion to adjourn was approved by roll-call vote; the board scheduled further discussion and potential action at its next regular meeting in September.

Adjournment and next steps: the board directed staff to prepare materials for community outreach and to return to the board with options to increase revenue or reduce expenses. The district will publish the detailed forecast and hold further budget discussions at the next board meeting.