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Cornell study projects 20–27% enrollment drop over decade, flags excess school capacity
Summary
Cornell Population Center told the Ithaca board that sustained local fertility declines drive projections of a 20–27% enrollment reduction over 10 years and that preliminary modeling shows substantial excess capacity with options to close one to three elementary schools; presenters stressed analyses are illustrative and equity/transportation work is required before decisions.
Cornell Population Center director Matt Hall presented an enrollment and facilities study that projects meaningful enrollment declines in the Ithaca City School District over the next decade and modeled how that decline would affect building capacity and operating costs.
Hall said the center’s baseline scenarios, which hold recent fertility declines as the key driver, produce a 20–27% reduction in enrollment in the district over 10 years. "There'll be 20 to 27% reductions in enrollment," Hall said, adding that migration patterns are a wildcard but historically have not offset the fertility trend in the ICSD area.
The study compared current…
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