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Small enrollment dip alters Stafford's 10-year projection; board opts to monitor before major CIP changes
Summary
Staff reported a half-percent K—2 enrollment decline (169 students) and a revised weighted projection that slows long-term growth; the board approved large-capital priorities with a footnote directing enrollment monitoring and cautioned about deferring projects based on a single year of data.
Staff presented updated enrollment counts and a 10-year forecast showing a modest year-over-year decline in K—2 enrollment (Sept. 30 count: 31,267; down 169 students, about 0.5%). The division explained its projection methodology (resident live births, cohort transition rates, and active housing-unit yields) and said it adjusted its three-year weighting to reflect recent slowdown.
Staff noted that neighboring…
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