Roanoke County schools project enrollment drop but gain state funds as board previews 2026–27 budget
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Summary
Staff recommended a budget baseline using an estimated ADM of 12,905 (down 255 students), which reduces state funding by roughly $2.2M but is largely offset by a recalculated local composite index that would add about $2.6M; proposals include a 2% raise scenario, targeted staffing, and major technology and capital needs.
Susan Peterson, the division’s school business administrator, opened the board’s Jan. 27 budget work session with enrollment and revenue projections for fiscal 2026–27, recommending an average daily membership (ADM) of 12,905 for funding purposes.
Peterson said the estimate reflects grade‑level progression and updated birth‑rate data, and represents a projected decline of 255 students from the current year, “which ends up being … 2,200,000” in reduced state funding. She told the board the division also used the state’s LCI calculator and other tools to model impacts.
Peterson said Roanoke County’s recalculated local composite index (LCI) fell to about 0.3472 from 0.3635 under the new biennial calculation, and that change would increase state aid by roughly $2.6 million — nearly offsetting the ADM loss. “The great news is this will give us 2,600,000,” she said.
On compensation, Peterson laid out a scenario for a 2% across‑the‑board increase (costing about $1.5 million) and noted estimates of savings from lower VRS contribution rates (about $2.4 million). She also warned the board that several governor’s‑budget items are provisional: “This is the governor’s budget. This is an outgoing governor … I don’t put a whole lot of stock in the 7,500,000,” she said, describing a tentative $7.5 million number in the governor’s proposed package that remains subject to the legislative process and the incoming administration.
Peterson walked through the division’s “kitchen‑sink” priority list — a non‑prioritized compilation of requests across departments — and highlighted large, one‑time and ongoing needs: $2.1 million for technology replacement (including bus‑camera upgrades and device replacement), $2.475 million to restore fleet replacement transfers, textbook adoption funding and a multiyear capital improvement plan that includes a potential alternative education conversion estimated at about $15.4 million in a future bond cycle.
Board members pressed staff on assumptions, asking for clearer breakout charts and updated per‑pupil visualizations for the next workshop. Peterson said staff will present additional detail at the Feb. 24 work session and noted a public hearing on Feb. 19 for citizen comment.
Next steps: staff will refine the draft budget, provide requested visualizations and return to the board at the Feb. 24 workshop; the February 19 public hearing will gather public input before later budget actions.