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Lodi School Board adopts conservative 3-year enrollment projection to guide referendum planning
Summary
After a presentation from Applied Population Laboratory, the board voted unanimously to use a three-year trend model for enrollment projections that will underpin fiscal planning for an upcoming operating referendum; administrators warned state and federal funding choices will likely increase local property-tax pressure despite small per-pupil increases.
At its July meeting the Lodi School District Board of Education voted unanimously to adopt the three-year trend enrollment projection prepared by the Applied Population Laboratory as the basis for fiscal projections related to a planned operating referendum.
Sarah Kemp of the Applied Population Laboratory presented four projection models — a 10-year baseline trend, a five-year trend, a three-year trend and a kindergarten-trend model — and explained the methodology, which uses grade-progression (cohort survival) ratios, third-Friday counts and local birth and housing data. Kemp said model outputs for the next five years range from a net loss of about 60 students to a gain of roughly 44 students depending on which model the board chooses.
The district—s administrator summarized two budget items from the recently signed state budget: a rise in special-education reimbursement toward the legislature—s 42% figure (operationally estimated nearer 39—140%) and a $325 per-pupil increase the district projects will bring about $472,000. The administrator warned, however, that the combined effect of state and federal decisions leaves much of the remaining funding responsibility on local property taxpayers. The administrator also said the Department of Public Instruction notified the state it may withhold about $72 million in federal funds, which could reduce Lodi—s federal aid by approximately $30,000—35,500 next year, depending on the final state allocation.
Board members questioned how Lodi—s trends compare with nearby districts and pressed on the causes of recent kindergarten declines despite rising local birth counts. Kemp said births in the district show a small long-term increase but that kindergarten enrollment has dipped in the last four years; she cited possible causes including moves out of district, private-school enrollment or changes tied to the pandemic-era period and said a resident survey would be necessary to determine the cause.
Administrators recommended using the more conservative three-year model for near-term budgeting and referendum planning; a board member moved to adopt the three-year trend as the basis for developing fiscal projections and the motion was approved 5-0.
Votes at a glance - Consent agenda (minutes, vouchers, multiple fundraiser requests, personnel updates): approved 5-0. - Adopt three-year enrollment projection model for referendum planning: approved 5-0. - Reaffirm board collective commitments (no formal changes): approved 5-0. - One-year contract with TLC Learning Center for before/after care at the primary school: approved 5-0. - $50,000 donation from the LES/OSC elementary PTO for the playground project: accepted 5-0. - Motion to adjourn: approved 5-0.
What happens next The adopted three-year projection will be used by administrators to frame budget assumptions and referendum messaging as the district develops a proposal; the board and administration said they will continue outreach (surveys and idea fairs) to gather community input ahead of the referendum and will post the corrected, final enrollment report on the district website.
