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Lodi School Board adopts conservative 3-year enrollment projection to guide referendum planning
Summary
After a presentation from Applied Population Laboratory, the board voted unanimously to use a three-year trend model for enrollment projections that will underpin fiscal planning for an upcoming operating referendum; administrators warned state and federal funding choices will likely increase local property-tax pressure despite small per-pupil increases.
At its July meeting the Lodi School District Board of Education voted unanimously to adopt the three-year trend enrollment projection prepared by the Applied Population Laboratory as the basis for fiscal projections related to a planned operating referendum.
Sarah Kemp of the Applied Population Laboratory presented four projection models — a 10-year baseline trend, a five-year trend, a three-year trend and a kindergarten-trend model — and explained the methodology, which uses grade-progression (cohort survival) ratios, third-Friday counts and local birth and housing data. Kemp said model outputs for the next five years range from a net loss of about 60 students to a gain of roughly 44 students depending on which model the board chooses.
The district—s administrator…
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