Vermilion Local warns of multimillion‑dollar shortfall without November levy; board hears five‑year forecast

The Vermilion Local School District’s treasurer, Justin, told the board Feb. 9 that recent state legislation and changes in how property taxes are calculated could force the district to cut roughly $6 million from its expenditures if voters do not approve a fixed settlement (formerly called a renewal levy) on the November ballot.

Justin presented the district’s January financial report and an updated five‑year forecast, saying general fund revenue through January was $13.7 million and all‑fund cash stood at about $17.1 million. He said property‑tax collections have risen in 2025 and 2026 because the county auditor added 3.9 mills back into effective rates, but future state legislative changes could reduce local receipts. "Without renewal and with our current legislation enacted, the district would need to reduce $6,000,000 from its expenditures while keeping expenditures flat throughout the forecasted period, to keep its current cash balance neutral," Justin said.

Justin outlined four recent bills the board is watching — House Bills 186, 335, 129 and 309 — and described their effects: capping property‑value growth used for tax calculations at the rate of inflation, treating certain levies differently inside and outside municipal boundaries, and shifting some local authority to county commissioners. He also said the district currently receives about $1.8 million from the state under a guarantee that protects some districts from funding losses tied to enrollment changes.

Using current assumptions, Justin showed two scenarios: with an emergency‑levy renewal on the November ballot, projected revenue would be about $25.9 million over the forecast horizon versus about $21.7 million without renewal. He warned that, under the no‑renewal scenario, the district’s cash could fall into negative territory by 2030 and that the district would need to pursue major expenditure reductions or other remedies. "This is saying that instead of going up to the rates that the home value goes up, it's limiting everything to the rate of inflation," Justin said of the legislative changes.

Board members asked clarifying questions about what the ballot measure will be called and how taxes would change for homeowners. Justin and another board member said the November measure will be a fixed settlement and that it would not increase taxpayers’ taxes beyond current levels; a positive vote would remove the district from the "20‑mill floor" calculation and, the treasurer said, would reduce taxes for current payers in future years.

Why it matters: the forecast ties near‑term budget choices and the November ballot measure to the district’s ability to maintain staffing, programs and capital planning. Justin recommended that administration prepare a financial recovery plan and that the board communicate clearly with voters about the upcoming fixed settlement.

Next steps: the board approved the forecast presentation and asked administration to return with a recovery plan and additional details on assumptions that will feed into budget decisions and any ballot language. The board also discussed timing for community outreach ahead of the November election.