Economists at AWB meeting say tariff uncertainty could slow growth; healthcare fuels regional jobs

At the Association of Washington Businesses’ 2025 spring meeting in Vancouver, Hamza Ablohrman, a senior economic analyst at the San Francisco Federal Reserve, and Dr. Grant Forsyth, chief economist at Avista Corporation, told attendees that uncertainty around recent tariff policy could dent U.S. growth while the healthcare sector is currently driving regional job growth.

Ablohrman laid out a monetary-policy primer and warned that trade policy is a key unknown. "Right now, it is at around 15%," he said, referring to an effective tariff rate that he noted had risen from roughly 3% earlier in the year. He said the final economic outcome will depend on whether tariff increases are temporary or persistent and on how firms and households respond, adding that "it depends" — a caution he repeated when describing how policymakers must weigh inflation and unemployment targets.

The San Francisco Fed analyst explained the Fed’s dual mandate and the mechanics by which the federal funds rate transmits to mortgages, business loans and other interest rates. He said tariffs can act as either a supply shock (raising firms’ input costs) or a demand shock (dampening household spending), and that the policy mix and duration would determine whether inflation or growth pressures dominate.

Forsyth emphasized local labor-market dynamics in Washington state, saying, "The story about a lot of our employment growth right now is health care." He pointed to post‑pandemic hiring and long-term demographic trends — an aging population and steady demand for health services — as the primary drivers of recent employment gains. Forsyth added that nonfarm employment growth excluding health care is substantially weaker.

Audience members tested the panel’s scenarios. An attendee identifying themselves as Bridal (Framatome) asked whether the U.S. economy can absorb a higher tariff baseline. Ablohrman said a 10% baseline could become common and described the U.S. as resilient but warned that higher tariffs still raise risks for businesses and households. Monique Valenzuela (Ventures in Seattle) pressed on manufacturing workforce shortages and possible solutions; Forsyth urged expanding education and vocational pipelines, citing examples of high-school programs that place graduates into well‑paid trade jobs.

Panelists also flagged infrastructure constraints for new technologies. In response to a question from Tim Shower (Vancouver), Forsyth said policymakers must factor energy and water requirements into plans for AI and data‑center growth.

The panel concluded with a call for clearer trade policy so businesses can plan. Ablohrman said he hopes to see a predictable path from the White House and Congress on tariff levels and timing, arguing that reduced policy whipsawing would help calm market uncertainty. The session paused for a short break and will continue with a legislative‑session review.