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Demographer: Vigo County enrollment likely to hold near current levels but high schools may lose about 400 students over next 3 years
Summary
Dr. Jerome McKibben told the Vigo County School Corporation board that demographic dynamics — age structure, housing turnover, transfer rates and mortgage costs — point to a largely stable elementary population but a projected shortfall of roughly 400 high-school students in the near term; the presentation was informational and no board action was required.
Dr. Jerome McKibben, an enrollment demographer, told the Vigo County School Corporation board the district’s enrollment forecast is driven by local age structure, housing-market dynamics, and net student transfers — not simply past enrollment trends. "These are enrollment forecasts. They are not projections," McKibben said, urging the board to treat the numbers as conditional on several key assumptions.
McKibben identified four variables that carry the most forecasting risk: long-term mortgage rates (the forecast assumes a 30-year fixed rate in the 5.5–7.5% range), the net interdistrict transfer rate (the model assumes a net loss of about 1,000 students statewide for districts like Vigo), new single-family construction (assumed roughly 90 homes per year) and sales of existing homes (assumed about 920 annual existing-home sales). "If you can't get a mortgage, you can't buy a house," McKibben said, explaining how higher rates depress household turnover and slow the arrival of families with school-age children.
Using 2020 census geography and IRS migration data, McKibben showed how local cohort sizes and the district’s age pyramid influence enrollment: elementary (pre-K–5) enrollment is forecast to hold near 6,600 and begin gradual recovery after 2030, while high school enrollment is likely to decline by about 400 students during the next three years before stabilizing near the mid‑3,000s. McKibben said his group’s typical confidence interval is plus or minus 2% over the life of a forecast.
Board members asked about local higher-education institutions and retirement-community impacts on cohort data. McKibben acknowledged group‑quarters populations (colleges, prison populations) and retirement communities skew some local age counts and explained his methodology removes those groups from child‑bearing/cohort calculations. In response to a question on forecast reliability, he said his team tracks past accuracy and performs an evaluation soon after enrollment counts are available.
The presentation was informational; no board votes were taken on the forecast. McKibben said district leaders should focus on housing turnover and retaining residents to stabilize future enrollment.
