County staff warn of $13.1M structural deficit; commissioners push for balanced budget

Mr. Winn, presenting the first budget workshop for FY 2025–26, said the county is early in the budget cycle but must plan around updated projections from the Florida Revenue Estimating Conference. Winn showed that a March revision trimmed earlier growth expectations and that the county’s multi‑year forecasts are sensitive to the tax‑base estimate. "Every 1% equals dollars 4,900,000," Winn told commissioners.

Using current projections, staff presented a structural general‑fund deficit estimate of approximately $13,100,000 under a 5.8% tax‑base increase scenario; staff also showed sensitivity to alternate growth rates that could eliminate the deficit if higher growth materializes. Winn reminded the board the county holds a $25,000,000 state loan received after Hurricane Ian that can be used for operations and is not due until 2033, and he noted the board has previously approved a five‑year EMS staffing growth plan that will require new recurring resources.

Commissioners reacted strongly to the projected deficit, with several urging immediate work to eliminate the gap and to coordinate with constitutional officers who account for a large share of general‑fund spending. One commissioner said balancing the budget should include outreach to constitutional officeholders and consideration of multi‑year debt‑payback options to avoid compounding cuts while revenues soften. Staff said they would run multiple scenarios for the board and bring back options, and the Chair asked staff to prepare a specific letter or outreach to constitutional officers as needed.

No budget decisions were adopted at the workshop; staff presented timelines for upcoming capital workshops, tax base preliminary estimates (early June), and continuation budget drafts in June and August leading to September budget hearings. Commissioners directed staff to pursue aggressive scenario planning and to return with options to close the structural gap.