Lifetime Citizen Portal Access — AI Briefings, Alerts & Unlimited Follows
Hydrology briefing warns Powell could hit critical elevations in 2026; District readies options
Loading...
Summary
Hydrology staff reported reduced unregulated inflow (≈4.7 MAF) and low runoff (55–66% of average in District basins), noting Blue Mesa and Green Mountain failed to fill and that Lake Powell could reach DROA trigger elevations or minimum power pool in 2026 absent different hydrology or operational changes.
District hydrology staff delivered an extensive update showing this water year produced substantially below‑average runoff across the Colorado River drainage in Colorado. Staff reported April 1–July 31 runoff at roughly 55–66% of average for the District’s subbasins and noted that unregulated inflow into Lake Powell observed for water year 2025 was about 4.69 MAF versus a July forecast of roughly 5.22 MAF.
Reservoir status: Most mid‑size and large reservoirs around the District finished the season below normal. Blue Mesa and Green Mountain did not fill; several reservoirs are materially below average. Staff highlighted that some planned releases for augmentation and fish recovery were met using alternative program sources (e.g., contributions from the Colorado Water Trust), but operational flexibility is reduced.
Powell and Mead outlook: The Bureau of Reclamation’s 24‑month studies show credible scenarios where Powell could approach or fall below the DROA trigger elevation (~3,525 ft) and, in a minimum‑inflow scenario, drop toward minimum power pool in 2026. Staff warned those outcomes would sharply increase pressure on interstate negotiations and could require changes to release operations, including larger releases from upstream storage projects such as Flaming Gorge or Blue Mesa in coordinated operations.
Directors asked about forecast reliability and whether supply‑based operating rules should use multi‑year averages rather than a single recent water year. Hydrology staff emphasized growing forecast uncertainty due to warm spring conditions, soil moisture, dust‑on‑snow, and rain‑on‑snow events and said researchers are working on integrated models that better capture the full set of drivers of runoff efficiency.
The board did not take a formal vote but instructed staff to continue monitoring, refine contingency options and report further at the next meeting and in coordination with the state’s 7‑state negotiations.
