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Horry County Schools report modest decline in student membership as birthrate stays flat
Summary
District officials reported a year-over-year decline in the 45-day average daily membership, with pre-K enrollment included in total counts, and discussed demographic shifts, charter-school impacts and planning implications for long-range capital projects.
Neil James, chair of the Horry County Board of Education Facilities Committee, opened discussion of enrollment as Mister Burch presented the district’s 10-year average daily membership (ADM) trend.
Mister Burch, who provided the enrollment briefing, said the district’s 45-day K–12 ADM this year was reported at about 45,666, down from 46,264 the prior year, and that an additional 1,521 pre-kindergarten and child-development students bring the reported pre-K–12 total to 47,187. “This gives us a total of 47,187 pre k through 12 ADM,” Burch said.
Why it matters: board members pressed several explanations for the dip, including the opening of new charter schools and broader demographic changes such as an aging county population. Burch and members noted mild growth in specific attendance areas (Aynor, Conway and North Myrtle Beach) but declines elsewhere.
Board member Pam Dawson thanked staff for the rapid analysis and told Ben Prince and the enrollment team the change “means much to the Saint James Elementary student body and to the community.” Members discussed the limits of forecasting and cited outside studies; one member suggested that prior growth projections had been somewhat optimistic and that the district has nevertheless performed better than forecast until this recent year.
Committee members and staff addressed the practical implications for capital planning. Cliff Jones, Horry County superintendent, and others advised caution in the district’s next capital-improvement planning cycle (2030–2035) to avoid overbuilding if longer-term trends moderate. The committee agreed to return with additional overlays and exit-survey findings from families who left the district; staff said they had sent roughly 1,000 exit-survey emails and received over 200 responses to date.
The committee scheduled a follow-up enrollment update for its December meeting to present combined analysis and the exit-interview results.
