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DSHS research warns Washington's 85-plus population will surge, increasing long-term care demand
Summary
DSHS research presented at the Senior Lobby estimates a multi-decade surge in the oldest-old: Washington's population aged 85+ is projected to quadruple by 2050, raising demand for long-term services, dementia supports, housing affordability and food assistance, and stressing Medicaid-paid services unless workforce capacity improves.
David Mancuso of the Washington State Department of Social and Health Services Research & Data Analysis division delivered data-driven projections on the state's "age wave" and its implications for long-term services and supports.
Mancuso said Washington is projected to see large increases in its population aged 85 and older by 2050, with the 85+ cohort rising by multiple-fold compared with 2020 levels. He highlighted county-level maps showing that by mid-century many counties will have substantially larger shares of very old residents and that rural counties already experience more compressed workforce-to-older-adult ratios than urban counties.
The presentation stressed the link between age and higher rates of disability and dementia: only a small share of 65'to'74-year-olds report disabling conditions, while a large majority of people 85+ do. Mancuso cited American Community Survey and state Medicare-claim signals showing dementia prevalence grows sharply with age, and he noted related system pressures: demand for Medicaid-funded long-term services is expected to grow faster than the available workforce unless policy and workforce changes are made. He also documented rising food-insecurity and housing-cost burdens among seniors, including a near-doubling of older adult enrollment in the state basic-food program and rapidly growing homelessness among seniors.
Mancuso said these demographic shifts are "largely in front of us" and called for multi-sector planning for housing, workforce development and supportive services to avoid a widening gap between demand and supply for long-term care.
