Treasury Secretary Bessent says deficit-to-GDP likely to fall to about 5.9%, credits tax, trade and deregulation

Treasury Secretary Bessent said onstage that preliminary CBO reports — reported on Bloomberg — show the federal deficit for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 will be slightly lower than previously estimated and that the deficit-to-GDP ratio has fallen "from about 6.5% ... to 5.9%." He cautioned that Treasury had not released final numbers because of a shutdown but framed the data as evidence the administration's policies are moving fiscal metrics in a positive direction.

Bessent described the administration's economic strategy as a "three-legged stool" of trade, tax and deregulation. He said the recent tax legislation expands full expensing to include industrial and agricultural structures and that, together with negotiated trade deals that have lowered tariffs and non-tariff barriers, the measures should increase certainty for exporters and firms planning investment. "So with many of the deals that we have gone from high tariff levels ... So on trade, we're landing the trade deals. That will increase certainty," he said.

On household impacts, Bessent said many taxpayers have not updated withholding to reflect the tax changes and that Treasury expects "substantial tax refunds beginning of next year," which he said will predominantly benefit lower-income taxpayers and boost take-home pay once withholding adjusts. He also pointed to deregulation and permitting reforms — spanning energy, industrial and financial sectors — as part of a plan to make it easier to build factories, pipelines and electric-grid projects in the U.S.

The Secretary framed the outlook optimistically for 2026, but he and the moderator emphasized that final Treasury figures had not been published at the time of the event. The session moved on to an extended conversation about community banks and the regulatory changes the Treasury is considering to support local lenders.