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NASS holds U.S. winter wheat yield at 53.7 bu/acre; production forecast 1.38 billion bushels
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Summary
The National Agricultural Statistics Service kept its June winter wheat yield forecast unchanged at 53.7 bushels per acre, projecting U.S. production of 1.38 billion bushels; NASS also released first forecasts for hops and updated estimates for cherries, maple syrup and Florida citrus.
Anthony Grilleman, acting branch chief for the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), presented the June crop production report to USDA policymakers, saying the U.S. winter wheat yield forecast remained at 53.7 bushels per acre and production was projected at 1,380,000,000 bushels.
Grilleman said the June forecasts draw on two complementary data sources: an operator-reported ‘‘ag yield’’ survey of nearly 3,000 producers (data collected May 30–June 8) and an objective yield field survey in which enumerators sampled 975 fields across a 10-state region between May 25 and June 1. ‘‘The yield forecast of 53.7 bushels per acre is also unchanged from last month's forecast, but up 3.9% or 2 bushels from the previous year,’’ Grilleman said.
Why it matters: the June crop production report is a principal federal economic indicator used by policymakers and markets. NASS noted that, if realized, the 2025 yield would be the second-highest on record and U.S. production would be the largest since 2016.
Key details from the report: NASS's weekly crop progress data showed 52% of winter wheat acreage rated good to excellent on June 1 (versus 49% a year earlier) and 83% of acreage headed (versus 82% last year). Grilleman reported that objective-yield lab processing was at 8% of samples this season (well below last June's 21%), and heads-per-square-foot in the June objective survey measured 46—the highest value on the chart since 2016.
Class breakdowns: hard red winter wheat was forecast at 782 million bushels (down 0.3% from May, up 1.5% year-over-year), soft red at 345 million bushels (up 0.2% month, 0.8% year), and white winter at 254 million bushels (up 0.5% month, up 7.6% year).
Other crops: NASS published a first-season hops forecast of 42,231 acres strung for harvest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington)—down 5.7% from 2024 and the fourth consecutive annual decline. Sweet cherry production was forecast at 383,000 tons (up 4.3% year-over-year; Washington up 29%), while tart cherry production was forecast at 138,500,000 pounds (down 35.5% from 2024; Michigan down 41%). U.S. maple syrup production was estimated at 5,770,000 gallons (down 1.5%), with Vermont accounting for roughly half of U.S. output. Citrus estimates reflected Florida-only reporting for June: all-orange production was forecast at 2,480,000 tons (up 0.7% month, down 7.5% year), grapefruit at 319,000 tons (unchanged month, down 2.7% year) and tangerines at 1,060,000 tons (unchanged month, down 4.5% year).
Method and caveat: Grilleman emphasized survey phasing—seven states were fully enumerated for the objective yield program while Colorado, Montana and Washington were half-sampled because maturity was historically later in those states. He noted that sample processing and additional field enumeration next month are expected to refine the objective-yield results.
Next steps: NASS listed upcoming releases (catalogs June 20; hogs and pigs June 26; agricultural prices June 27; acreage/grain & rice stocks June 30; the next crop production report July 11) and will host a social-media Q&A at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time. The full June crop production report and supporting tables are available on NASS's website.
Attribution: Quotes and data in this article are attributed to Anthony Grilleman (acting branch chief, NASS) and the briefing presenters as indicated in the NASS June crop production briefing.
