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WASDE: global supply shifts boost U.S. corn stocks, tighten some crop balances overseas
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Summary
The World Agricultural Outlook Board said NASS’s larger U.S. production estimates raised global corn supplies and led WASDE to tighten some ending stocks while lowering several U.S. price forecasts; the report also noted weather-driven reductions in EU corn and sunflower seed forecasts.
Mark Jekanowski, chair of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, reviewed WASDE’s domestic and global balance-sheet updates, saying the August report reflects both NASS’s U.S. production increases and several weather-related foreign changes.
Jekanowski said global wheat production changed little but U.S. HRW sales supported a 25 million bushel raise in U.S. wheat exports and a small tightening of ending stocks. On rice, he described modest U.S. balance adjustments and a 20¢ per 100-weight increase in the U.S. season-average rice price driven by California export strength.
On corn, Jekanowski said the U.S. production increase dominates the global ledger: "Again, big increase here, based on the data we got from NASS this morning," he said, and noted global corn supply rose by roughly 23.8 million metric tons. He added that higher U.S. supplies lifted use across categories and prompted a reduction in the U.S. season-average corn price to $3.90 per bushel.
Jekanowski also discussed weather-related reductions in the European Union and Serbia that lowered EU corn and sunflower forecasts; he cited unusually hot, dry conditions in parts of the Eastern EU as visible in vegetative health indices. He summarized other commodity changes — soybeans saw small net shifts globally (Argentina and Uruguay revisions), cotton production was down in the U.S. but up in China, and sugar processors reported higher-than-expected old-crop beet production combined with strong imports.
For meat, livestock and dairy, Jekanowski said beef and pork production forecasts were lowered for 2025–26 due to reduced placements and lighter weights, while broiler production was raised based on hatchery data; dairy production was raised with higher cow numbers and milk per cow, supporting strong export competitiveness.
Jekanowski closed by noting some back-year revisions and that many of the changes in global supply and trade reflect recent administrative and producer data. He thanked attendees and said the WASDE and NASS teams will return next month with updated estimates.
