NASS August forecasts record U.S. corn yield and production, lifts supplies and trims season price
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Summary
The National Agricultural Statistics Service’s August report projects a record U.S. corn yield of 188.8 bu/acre and production of 16.7 billion bushels; higher supplies prompt WASDE to raise use and cut the U.S. season-average corn price to $3.90 per bushel.
Anthony Prahleman, acting chief of the NASS Props branch, presented the August crop production report, saying the agency’s first seasonal corn yield estimate is 188.8 bushels per acre and production is forecast at 16,700,000,000 bushels — figures that would be U.S. records if realized. Prahleman said planted area was raised to 97,300,000 acres, up 2.2 percent from June, with harvest area forecast at 88,700,000 acres.
Why it matters: the combined increase in U.S. planted acreage and above-trend yields means substantially higher U.S. corn supplies for the coming marketing year. "As of August 1, yield is forecasted at a 188.8 bushels per acre," Prahleman said, noting that this is NASS’s first yield-and-production forecast for the season. He also told listeners the NASS forecast sits well above most pre-report industry expectations.
The World Agricultural Outlook Board incorporated NASS’s larger U.S. corn estimate into the WASDE balance sheet. Mark Jekanowski, chair of the World Ag Outlook Board, said the large production increase raised global corn supplies by the equivalent of roughly 23.8 million metric tons and pushed U.S. ending stocks above 2 billion bushels. "With that large increase, billion bushel increase in total supplies, higher ending stocks," Jekanowski said, and added that the board lowered its U.S. season-average corn price forecast by $0.30 to $3.90 per bushel.
Data and methods: Prahleman described the inputs for the August estimates: an operator-reported Ag Yield survey (nearly 15,000 sampled operators, collected July 30–Aug. 6), an objective winter wheat field survey in 10 program states with enumerator measurements and lab analysis, satellite NDVI imagery through July 27 for modeling corn and soybean yields in the Corn Belt, and FSA-certified acreage used to adjust planted-area estimates. He emphasized that NASS began earlier August reviews of FSA certified acreage last year to allow timely adjustments to acreage estimates.
Regional detail: Prahleman highlighted state-level forecasts and record expectations in many major producing states. He listed Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin among states forecast to post record high corn yields this year.
Uncertainties and next steps: Prahleman and Jekanowski stressed that August is an early forecast and will be updated in subsequent monthly releases. NASS recommended referring to the official published estimates should any discrepancy with the briefing arise. NASS also offered follow-up by phone and email and scheduled a social-media Q&A later in the day for technical questions.
The agencies will update these estimates in the coming monthly reports; NASS noted the next crop production report is scheduled for Sept. 12.
