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NASS: U.S. hog inventory at about 75.5 million head; sows, pig crop and imports reviewed
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Summary
At a Dec. 1 briefing, NASS presented its December Hogs and Pigs estimates, reporting a Dec. 1 inventory of roughly 75.5 million head, small year-over-year gains in market hog categories, and higher Canadian imports; officials also summarized recent revisions and forthcoming NASS releases.
Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board at the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), opened a Dec. 1, 2025 briefing to present the agency’s December Hogs and Pigs estimates and to provide context for USDA policy officials.
Travis Averill, chief of the NASS Livestock Branch, told attendees that NASS surveyed 5,752 operations between Nov. 23 and Dec. 10 using mail, internet, telephone and face-to-face methods to produce the December quarterly estimates. “A total of 5,752 operations were surveyed this quarter,” Averill said.
The headline NASS numbers show the U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on Dec. 1, 2025 at about 75,500,000 head, an increase of 0.6% from a year earlier. Averill also summarized revision activity: after reviewing final pig-crop counts, slaughter, death loss and updated trade data, NASS revised March 2025 inventory and pig-crop estimates downward by 1.9% compared with previous values; the current March estimate was described as 73,700,000 head with a pig crop at 33,500,000 head.
Averill provided the breeding/market split and leading-state detail. The breeding herd was reported at 5,952,000 head (down about 0.9% from 2024) while market hogs were 69,600,000 head (up about 0.8%). He listed the top five states as Iowa (up 4% year over year), Minnesota (up 1% and noted as a record high for the quarter), North Carolina (down 4%), Illinois (down about 1%) and Indiana (up 1%).
Market hogs were broken out by weight group: under 50 pounds at about 21,900,000 head (up 1%), 50–119 pounds at about 19,000,000 head (down 0.9%), 120–179 pounds at about 14,900,000 head (up 0.6%), and 180 pounds and over at about 13,900,000 head (up 2.8%).
On production-intentions and sow activity, NASS reported sows farrowed for Sept.–Nov. 2025 at roughly 2,933,000 head, an increase of about 8,000 from the prior year. Second intentions for Dec.–Feb. were reported at about 2,885,000 head (up 1.9%); first intentions for March–May were given at about 2,910,000 head (up 58,000 from the prior year’s actual for that quarter). NASS also reported pig crop weaned for Sept.–Nov. at about 34,998,000 head, up approximately 0.4% year over year, and pigs per litter weaned at 11.93, slightly above the prior year's 11.92.
Averill compared NASS estimates to trade expectations, noting that several NASS point estimates were above trade ranges for the same items and presenting ASB first-versus-final estimate series over the last decade; he said 21 of 37 quarters since 2016 were within trade expectations. He also explained the sow-farrow calculation used to produce a roughly 49.4% rate when comparing sows farrowed to the previous quarter’s breeding herd.
On trade, Averill reported Canadian imports for the year at about 1,786,000 head, up about 12.7% from 2024; approximately 75% of those imports were feeder pigs (about 1,333,000 head, up roughly 17.8%) with the remainder being slaughter hogs (about 452,000 head).
Averill reviewed price series for hogs and corn over the last decade, noting the most current published prices were for October and that November prices would be released on Dec. 31. He described recent six-month price ratios and said the historical breakeven ratio is about 15.
NASS staff listed upcoming publications and dates through January (livestock slaughter, poultry slaughter and cold storage on Dec. 31; agricultural prices on Jan. 2; annual crop production and grain stocks on Jan. 12; cattle and other livestock reports later in January). Averill also encouraged registration for USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February in Arlington, Va., which will be offered in person and virtually.
Honig reminded the audience that OMB statistical policy classifies the hogs and pigs report as a principal federal economic indicator and asks policy officials to refrain from public comment for 30 minutes after release; NASS said it would not take public questions during the briefing and that staff would be available afterward by phone or email. All official estimates, Averill said, should be verified against the published NASS record available on the agency’s website.
The briefing concluded with an NASS reminder that full reports and charts are available on the agency website and with holiday greetings from presenters.
