NASS'August estimates show record U.S. corn and soybean production; WASDE raises global wheat output

The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported higher-than-expected August crop estimates on the morning briefing, including a record U.S. corn yield of 183.1 bushels per acre and a national corn production estimate of about 15.1 billion bushels, NASS presenters said.

"Our first yield for the year, this is a record yield, at a 183.1 bushels per acre," said Fleming Gibson, acting chief of the NASS Props branch, as he reviewed survey methods and the data sources underlying the August estimates.

The NASS update also showed strong soybean results. Gibson said soybeans were rated 68% good to excellent, with a U.S. soybean production estimate of about 4.9 billion bushels and a record U.S. soybean yield of roughly 53.2 bushels per acre. He described the estimates as driven by four sources this month: the farmer-reported yield survey (about 14,000 operations), a 10-state objective yield program for winter wheat (about 1,000 samples), remote sensing (NDVI), and USDA FSA certified acreage records.

The briefing tied NASS figures directly into the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. "All of this information that Fleming reported this morning gets incorporated into U.S. balance sheets today," said Mark Jekanowski, chair of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, who led the WASDE portion of the event. Jekanowski said the NASS production increases tightened some ending stocks calculations even as they raised overall U.S. supplies.

On specific markets, the WASDE presenter said the U.S. corn production increase added to supplies but that global shifts left U.S. ending stocks slightly lower this month; he also said WASDE trimmed the season-average corn price modestly to reflect recent futures. For soybeans, Jekanowski noted a large increase in U.S. production in the out-year example and said season-average soybean price forecasts were reduced (he cited a 30-cent-per-bushel reduction on the soybean season-average forecast this month).

Beyond U.S. crops, WASDE raised global wheat production to a record level this month, driven in part by unusually favorable rainfall and improved satellite indicators in Kazakhstan. "Globally, that would be a new record, record large, wheat production," Jekanowski said, and he pointed to satellite NDVI/VHI evidence supporting the Kazakhstan revision. Conversely, he said heat and dryness in Ukraine and parts of Russia were reducing yields there, tightening supplies in those regions.

Other headline revisions from NASS and WASDE included a revised cotton planted/harvested estimate (Gibson reported a revised planted forecast near 11.1 million acres and a first harvested estimate for the season) and numerous smaller changes across barley, oats, rice, sorghum, sugar beets and specialty crops. Gibson noted program changes such as reintroducing New York and Oregon into the NASS grape estimating program.

Lance Hodink, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board at NASS, opened the briefing and reminded attendees that "OMB's statistical policy instructs policy-making officials to refrain from making public comment regarding the content of these reports within 30 minutes of their release." He also said NASS would host a social-media Q&A at 1:15 p.m. ET where staff and the ASB chair would take follow-up questions.

The agencies emphasized that the briefing summarizes the official estimates and that the published reports are the authoritative record; attendees and the public were directed to the released tables and to follow-up contacts for clarifications. The NASS chair and USDA staff also listed upcoming NASS releases (rice stocks, county cash-rent estimates, an August census-related release, and ag prices) and invited additional technical questions by phone or email.