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WASDE: EU heat, Serbia dryness trim global corn outlook; wheat cut in EU amid wet harvest
Summary
The World Agricultural Outlook Board reported lower global corn production this month driven by record heat and dryness in parts of the EU and Serbia; U.S. export strength partly offsets reductions while wheat forecasts fall in the EU due to wet conditions at harvest.
The World Agricultural Outlook Board released the September WASDE update, citing weather-driven cuts to EU and Serbian corn production and a mixed set of global balance-sheet adjustments across grain, oilseed, cotton, sugar, meat and dairy markets.
The board's chair (introduced in the briefing) said global corn production was reduced relative to last month, driven especially by record heat and low rainfall in parts of Southeastern Europe. "So it's been very, very hot in this area," he said, pointing to temperature departures and vegetation-health imagery. The presenter said lower production prospects in the EU and Serbia were partially offset by small increases in Canada and higher stocks in China, Brazil and Mexico.
WASDE reported global corn trade down roughly 900,000 tons month-to-month, reflecting slower-than-expected shipments from Brazil; U.S. exports, however, were raised by 40,000,000 bushels, and old-crop U.S. ethanol use was increased by 15,000,000 bushels (Energy Information Administration data). The presenter said those changes tighten old-crop U.S. ending stocks by about 55,000,000 bushels and that the U.S. season-average corn price forecast was reduced by $0.10 to $4.10 per bushel.
On soybeans, WASDE lowered Argentina's production by about 900,000 tons (Ministry of Agriculture data) and raised Paraguay's by roughly 500,000 tons based on higher harvested area; U.S. old-crop crush was increased 5,000,000 bushels, tightening ending stocks by the same amount.
Wheat saw significant cuts in the EU driven by extreme wetness during the growing season and at harvest, while Australia was raised by 2,000,000 tons and some revisions from Statistics Canada affected historical stocks. Ukraine exports were raised to 15,000,000 tons. The presenter described trade shifts and modest global production reductions while noting global wheat production could still be near record levels despite the monthly cut.
Other commodity notes included small global rice production changes (India raised 1,000,000 tons to a record on area), global cotton production down about 1.2 million bales (U.S. accounting for roughly half of that decline), sugar balance-sheet shifts driven by marketing-year timing and TRQ/FTA arrivals, and meat and dairy adjustments: higher U.S. beef production and exports, small pork changes, higher broiler production, and tighter dairy supplies pushing prices higher.
The board emphasized weather uncertainty in Australia and parts of Europe for coming months and recommended consulting the published WASDE tables for the full set of country and balance-sheet detail.
